Verbier Snow Prediction Winter 2026–27

Super El Niño Joins the Roddy Forecasting System

If you are a regular reader of my Verbier ski blog, you will know that every summer I attempt the impossible and predict the coming winter’s snowfall in Verbier.

The tradition started back in 2010 and has gradually evolved into one of the Alps’ least recognised but most entertaining long-range forecasting systems. Over the years the model has incorporated snowberries, wasps, woolly caterpillars, onion skins, mountain folklore, Hurricane Florence, record-breaking heatwaves and various observations that most meteorologists would probably dismiss immediately.

Remarkably, some of these predictions have worked surprisingly well.

The underlying theory has remained remarkably consistent. Whenever I see unusual weather somewhere in the world, I find myself asking the same question.

Where has all the water gone?

Back in 2018 I was watching Hurricane Florence push vast quantities of water across the Atlantic. In 2022 I was writing about record-breaking European heat and wondering where all that missing rainfall had gone. This year, parts of Portugal have already recorded temperatures approaching 40°C before summer has properly started, Europe is once again experiencing exceptional warmth and weather experts are discussing the possible influence of a Super El Niño.

The newspapers tell us this is climate change, while weather experts talk about ocean temperatures, atmospheric rivers and changing weather patterns. My question remains much simpler.

Where has all the water gone?

Because water does not simply disappear.

All that heat means more evaporation. Warmer oceans mean more moisture in the atmosphere. More moisture means more energy, and more energy tends to create more extreme weather. Sometimes that energy arrives as floods. Sometimes it arrives as storms. And sometimes, when winter finally takes hold over the Alps, it arrives as snow.

Potentially a lot of snow.

Looking Back At Verbier Winters

After nearly four decades skiing in the Alps and more than twenty years in Verbier, I have seen winters that arrived late, winters that never seemed to stop snowing and winters where entire months disappeared beneath successive storm cycles.

The biggest winters all seem to have one thing in common. They are usually preceded by weather patterns somewhere else that make everybody stop and pay attention.

Nobody can accurately predict snowfall six months in advance. If they claim they can, they are probably selling something. But history suggests that unusual weather often has a habit of reappearing somewhere else later in the system.

Which brings us back to Summer 2026.

A New Addition To The Forecasting Model

Every year the forecasting system evolves.

Previous indicators have included snowberries, wasps and various forms of mountain folklore. This year I am adding a new variable.

Super El Niño.

Combined with record early summer temperatures across Europe, it has pushed the my Forecasting Model and the needle is heading into the Snowpocalypse territory.

Whether this is meteorology or complete nonsense remains to be seen.

My Official Forecast

After extensive research, several cups of green tea and at least three minutes of serious thought, I can now reveal my official prediction for Winter 2026–27.

It is going to be massive. Not just good. Massive.

Powder days stacked one after another. Storm cycles arriving exactly when we need them. Endless photos of snow-covered chalets appearing on social media while people back home stare sadly at their office windows.

At the moment I appear to be the outlier. While everyone else is talking about heatwaves, drought and climate records, I am busy predicting one of the biggest winters in recent memory.

By February, however, after a few major storm cycles have rolled through the Alps, I fully expect everyone to explain why it was obvious all along.

What If I’m Wrong?

One of the great advantages of publishing long-range snow forecasts in summer is that most people forget the details by spring.

If Winter 2026–27 turns out to be average, we shall simply focus on the excellent skiing, beautiful scenery and memorable days in the mountains.

If it turns out to be huge, however, I would appreciate everyone remembering exactly where they heard the prediction first.

Need A Powder Guide?

If Winter 2026–27 turns out to be as big as I’m predicting, there is going to be a lot of snow to explore.

Whether you are looking for private ski lessons, off-piste coaching, mountain adventures or simply want to discover more of Verbier with a local expert, I’d be delighted to help.

Get in touch via the contact page and let’s start planning your winter before everyone else realises I was right.